Afternoon summary
UK records 36,389 new cases and 64 further deaths
The UK has recorded 36,389 new coronavirus cases and 64 further deaths, according to the latest update to the government’s coronavirus dashboard.
The total number of new cases over the past seven days is still up on the total for the previous week, by 11.4%. But yesterday the equivalent figure was +24.2%, and the previous day it was +35.8%, so the rate of increase does appear to be slowing. Some of this might be related to a slight drop in the number of tests being carried out.
Deaths over the past week are up 45.1% over the total for the previous seven days. Yesterday the equivalent figure was 50.6%.
Fridays are always a good day for Covid data, and Public Health England has published some more of its regular technical briefings. As usual, PHE’s Meaghan Kall has the best Twitter summary in a thread starting here.
Happy Friday!☀️
— Meaghan Kall (@kallmemeg) July 23, 2021
4 🆕 variant @PHE_uk reports now published
Technical Briefing 19 on B.1.617.2/Delta https://t.co/L5l5SdmxMC
B.1.617.2/Delta risk assessmenthttps://t.co/R8WFRZ3lL1
B.1.351/Beta risk assessment https://t.co/VCIqETD14e
Variant update 9https://t.co/kM90sfuczx pic.twitter.com/fC5FsKcWKG
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ONS estimates for rates of Covid in England, by region and age group
Turning back to the ONS infection survey, here are the figures from the data tables showing the estimate for what percentage of the population in England would have tested positive on 14 July by region.
North-east: 1 in 45
North-west: 1 in 55
Yorkshire and the Humber: 1 in 70
East Midlands: 1 in 70
West Midlands: 1 in 65
East of England: 1 in 110
London: 1 in 70
South-east: 1 in 100
South-west: 1 in 100
And here are the figures showing the estimate for what percentage of the population in England would have tested positive on 14 July by age.
Age 2 to school year 6: 1 in 65
School year 7 to school year 11: 1 in 50
School year 12 to age 24: 1 in 30
Age 25 to 34: 1 in 60
Age 35 to 49: 1 in 80
Age 50 to 69: 1 in 160
Age 70+: 1 in 290
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata
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Youth violence likely to explode over summer, UK experts fear
Experts and charities have raised the alarm about rising youth violence in the UK and say it could erupt over the summer, aggravated by Covid lockdowns, mental health problems and months out of education, my colleague Jessica Murray reports.
One of the more intriguing, but less commented on, revelations in Dominic Cummings’ BBC interview this week was his disclosure that Boris Johnson refers to the Daily Telegraph, his former employer, as (in Johnson’s words) his “real boss”. That prompted Tim Farron, the former Lib Dem leader, to table a written parliamentary question to the PM about his relations with his line manager.
“Boris Johnson is keen on conducting ‘government by Telegraph’, so we’re keen to know what the paper’s top brass think of the job he’s doing,” Farron said.
In his question, Farron said that since Johnson regarded the Telegraph as his real boss, he wanted to know what the job description was, what his performance indicators were, and if he got an annual appraisal.
Sadly the Commons clerks ruled it out of order, so we may never find out.
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Prof John Edmunds, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and one of the key figures providing Covid modelling for Sage, told BBC Radio 4’s The World at One that regular testing could provide an acceptable alternative to isolation for contacts of people testing positive. He explained:
If you ask contacts to test every day, maybe five to seven days, then that can be as effective as instead asking them to quarantine for about 10 days. That’s just a modelling result and what you really want to see is whether that sort of result is backed up by hard evidence from a randomised control trial and indeed that’s exactly what’s happened yesterday. A randomised control trial done in schoolchildren [see 12.02pm] found exactly that – that the level of infection in schools where the students were asked to self-isolate was exactly the same as the level of infection in schools where they had the daily testing for contacts.
Edmunds said another trial of testing as an alternative to isolation, involving adults, was under way. He said it was “prudent” to wait until the results from that trial were in before changing policy, but said he expected that in the coming weeks.
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Greg Clark, the former Conservative business secretary who now chairs the Commons science committee, has joined those saying the government should let people use testing as an alternative to isolation if they have been in contact with someone testing positive. He told Radio 4’s The World at One that the changes announced last night (see 9.28am) were “an improvement” but that the government should “go further”. He went on:
My committee took evidence months ago now from Sir John Bell, the very distinguished regius professor at Oxford, who said that what should happen is, of course people testing positive for Covid need to isolate, but contacts should be able to take a test and isolate if positive, but go about their business if negative.
That would avoid much of the disruption that we have and, actually, and Sir John made this point, would cause people to be more compliant with the advice.
Many people think that 10 days isolation is pretty onerous and some of them will not comply with it.
We know that on August 16 a new system will come in, in which you can take a test if you’re named as a contact and only isolate if you’re positive – I don’t see why we can’t begin that now on July 23 rather than wait.
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Scotland has recorded 1,505 new coronavirus cases, with 6.4% of tests producing a positive result. According to today’s figures, there are 502 people in hospital, and there have been six further deaths.
As this chart on the dashboard shows, there has been a sharp fall in recorded new cases since the start of July.
The trend in this chart is not the same as the trend in the ONS data for Scotland (see 1.46pm) because they measure cases in a different way. The Scottish government figures are based on people who take a test; the ONS figures are based on a survey, which involves testing people at random who would not otherwise take a test.
The Scottish dashboard also shows hospital admissions are falling, although that has started more recently.
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The government has published its latest Covid estimates for R, the reproduction number, and the growth rate for England.
R is estimated to be between 1.2 and 1.4, the same as last week.
As the government explains, “an R value between 1.2 and 1.4 means that, on average, every 10 people infected will infect between 12 and 14 other people.”
And the growth rate is estimated to be between +4% and +6%. That is a marginal improvement on last week, when it was put at between +4% and +7%.
As the government explains, “a growth rate of between 4% and 6% means that the number of new infections is growing by between 4% and 6% every day.”
And here are the regional figures.
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And here are two more charts from the ONS infection survey.
This one shows the trend in cases in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
And this one shows estimates for the percentage of people thought to have the virus last Saturday (17 July) in the four nations, by age. It shows that in England and Scotland people around the age of 20 were markedly more likely to be infected than anyone else, but not in Wales or Northern Ireland.
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The ONS figures also provide a hint that, among secondary school pupils in England, case rates might be plateauing too.
The report says that in England case rates were going up last week amongst all age groups, except for secondary school pupils in years 7 to 11. Among this group cases were going up in the fortnight to 17 July, but in the seven days up to 17 July “the trend is uncertain”, the ONS says.
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ONS survey provides hint Covid cases may be starting to plateau in north-east and north-west
Turning back to the latest ONS infection survey figures (see 12.31pm), the figures also show that, although the percentage of people testing positive in all other regions of England was going up last week, there is a hint in the figures that in the north-east and the north-west cases may be plateauing.
The ONS says that over the fortnight up to 17 July cases in these two regions increased, but that “the trend is uncertain in the week ending 17 July”.
Here are graphs showing the regional trends in England.
The line on the north-east graph makes it look as though cases have definitely started to fall. But the ONS says: “Caution should be taken in over-interpreting any small movements in the latest trend, particularly in the north-east where the credible intervals are wider and therefore uncertainty is higher.”
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Sturgeon announces 'very limited' change to give some critical workers in Scotland exemption from isolation rules
The Scottish government has announced that, like the UK government, it is also allowing a limited number of critical workers who are fully vaccinate to use regular testing as an alternative to isolation if they have been in contact with someone testing positive.
Firms will have to apply to take part in the scheme through the Scottish government’s website and they will only be allowed to do so if they meet its definition of being part of critical national infrastructure. They will also have to show how isolation is impacting on their work, and what other steps they have taken to address the problem.
In a news release announcing the measure Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, said:
It is essential that lifeline services and critical national infrastructure are maintained and we are implementing these changes now - ahead of possible changes to self-isolation rules for close contacts that may apply more generally in future - to ensure staff shortages do not put key services at risk.
We have seen significant staff shortages in a small number of organisations in recent days and we have worked with them to protect services. Applications for exemptions are being considered from today and we will consider applications as they come in.
Clinical evidence tells us we can safely and effectively release some critical staff from self-isolation, with appropriate safeguards. However, this is a very limited change at this stage, to be applied on a case by case basis and only where absolutely necessary.
We will not allow key services to be threatened by staff shortages but equally we must continue to protect public health.
ONS says more than 800,000 people in UK thought to have had Covid last week
The Office for National Statistics has published its latest Covid infection survey figures. This exercise uses mass sampling to assess the true incidence of coronavirus in the UK, and it is seen as one of the best guides to the spread of the virus because the official case numbers miss so many people who are asymptomatic, or who do not get a test.
Here are the latest figures. They cover the period up to last Saturday, 17 July.
England
The ONS says cases were continuing to increase.
It says 1 person in 75 was estimated to have the virus - up from 1 in 95 the previous week.
It says this means an estimated 741,700 people had coronavirus in the week ending 17 July.
Wales
The ONS says cases increased.
It says 1 person in 210 was estimated to have the virus - up from 1 in 360.
It says this means an estimated 14,400 people had coronavirus in the week ending 17 July.
Northern Ireland
The ONS says cases increased
It says 1 person in 170 was estimated to have the virus - up from 1 in 290.
It says this means an estimated 10,900 people had coronavirus in the week ending 17 July.
Scotland
The ONS says cases increased over the last fortnight, but the trend for the most recent week is “uncertain”.
It says 1 person in 80 was estimated to have the virus - up from 1 in 90 the previous week.
It says this means an estimated 65,100 people had coronavirus in the week ending 17 July.
These figures are all central estimates and are subject to credibility intervals. The 95% credible interval ranges are given in the report.
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As my colleague Ian Sample reports today, a pilot programme has shown that asking students who have been in contact with someone testing positive to use daily tests to reduce the risk of spreading the virus is as effective as asking them to isolate.
In his story Ian quotes responses to the study from various scientists, including one who says “the conclusions could equally be that both interventions are highly effective or that both interventions have no value whatsoever”, but the Science Media Centre has posted even more reaction from scientists on its website.
Most of them give a qualified welcome to the conclusions of the study. But Billy Quilty, an epidemiologist from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine says “reductions in school absences were smaller than expected however, which the authors note may have been influenced by a 49.5% participation rate in daily testing and the ineligibility of individuals who were contacts of cases from outside the school setting”.
And Jon Deeks, a professor of biostatistics at Birmingham University, argues the study has failed to make the case for testing as an alternative to isolation because “Covid infection rates were higher in the schools where contact testing was used” and because the impact on school absences was only limited.
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The Scottish Hospitality Group, which represents firms in the Scottish hospitality sector, is proposing an alternative approach to dealing with the problem caused by staff being told they have to isolate because they have been in contact with someone testing positive. It is a hybrid between the current system for most people, who are expected to isolate, and the system allowing some workers to use daily testing as an alternative. The SHG is suggesting that employers take decisions about what staff should do by following this flowchart, which makes allowance for whether staff think they really might pose a risk, and whether their absence would lead to the business having to close.
The SHG wants the UK and Scottish governments to endorse this approach. Stephen Montgomery, an SHG spokesperson, said:
This is something that Holyrood and Westminster must take seriously ahead of restrictions easing further. Our proposed process may not be perfect but it’s better than the vacuum we have just now and it would allow everyone to make sensible decisions that balance jobs and health.
Frozen food industry body says government's isolation exemption scheme 'worse than useless'
The British Frozen Food Federation has described the measures announced by the government last night to allow around 10,000 food depot staff to use testing as an alternative to isolation (see 9.28am) as “worse than useless”. Richard Harrow, the BFFF’s chief executive, explained:
The government announcement last night that parts of the supply chain will be allowed to test and release workers that are pinged by track and trace only goes part of the way. It shows that yet again government does not understand how connected the food supply chain is, only opening part is unlikely to solve the overall issue.
Plus, who is in and who is out, who decides and how do they decide? Confusion continues to pervade and I have been advised no list until Monday. This is worse than useless.
BMA calls for 'urgent rethink' of government's Covid strategy, saying it is allowing virus to ‘let rip’
The British Medical Association, effectively the trade union for doctors, has called for “an urgent rethink” of the government’s Covid strategy, arguing that Boris Johnson has gone too far in lifting restrictions. Dr Chaand Nagpaul, the chair of the BMA council, has frequently questioned government policy in the past, but this morning he issued a particularly strong critique, arguing that the media focus on the so-called pingdemic is missing the point. He said:
The government’s current public infection control strategy is not working, it is leading to rocketing case numbers with more illness in the community, more people in hospital, and more people having to isolate. It is time for an urgent rethink rather than staying on the same course.
BMA members across the country are seeing patient care threatened as surges in Covid illness is resulting in hospitals having to cancel more non-urgent care and GPs are overstretched with demand. Local public health units are overwhelmed with calls from schools and businesses. These pressures are now being exacerbated by increasing numbers of health service staff themselves falling ill or self-isolating, and unable to work at a time when they are most needed. Other key services such as supermarkets are telling us that they are struggling to put food on their shelves due to staff absences.
The government needs to wake up. This is not a problem about excessive pinging of the NHS app, but is a direct result of lack of effective measures by government that is allowing the virus to let rip throughout the nation. The BMA has repeatedly warned that amidst the highest levels of infections in the world, now is not the right time to abandon legal restrictions such as social distancing and mask wearing - and we are likely to see this situation continue to worsen as a result.
On Monday the government announced that fully vaccinated frontline health and social care workers will be able to use daily testing as an alternative to isolation, if they have been in contact with someone testing positive, in some circumstances. (This is broadly the same policy extended to food depot workers, and to some critical workers, last night). But Nagpaul argued this policy was a mistake. He said:
Exempting healthcare staff from self-isolation to get them back to work is a desperate and potentially unsafe policy that does not address the root problem. The safety of patients and staff must be paramount. People go to see healthcare professionals in order to get better, not to risk getting infected, and staff should not fear transmission of the virus from their own colleagues.
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The TUC has said the government plans announced last night to allow a limited number of critical workers in 16 sectors to use testing as an alternative to isolation are flawed. Frances O’Grady, the TUC general secretary, said:
The government needs to be clear about who it classes as critical workers. The current proposals don’t reflect the real world because businesses don’t exist in isolation – they are part of complex supply chains.
And ministers must ensure bad employers are not allowed to abuse the new rules on exemptions to have a free for all.
The government has given details of how its scheme will work here.
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The London Chamber of Commerce has joined other business groups in saying that the government should stop requiring people to isolate if they have been in contact with someone testing positive. Richard Burge, the LCC chief executive, said:
The government should look at replacing the requirement to self-isolate with mandatory daily testing for anyone notified by NHS test and trace.
Ministers should be taking account of the effectiveness of daily testing where it is already being applied and considering rolling this out to support businesses’ ability to function and recover.
Police pay freeze 'an insult and wholly unacceptable', says chief constable
Nick Adderley, the chief constable of Northamptonshire police, has described the government’s decision to freeze pay for officers for 2021-22 as “an insult and wholly unacceptable”. He posted his comments on Twitter.
The announcement today of a 0% pay increase for police officers is quite frankly an insult and wholly unacceptable. Pay aside, this indicates a complete lack of awareness, appreciation or recognition for the incredible work officers have done throughout this pandemic.
— Nick Adderley (@NorthantsChief) July 22, 2021
Over the past 18 months I have seen officers punched, stabbed, shot, persecuted and ridiculed whilst attempting to implement confusing, rushed and ambiguous legislation, in order to protect the public and rightly, the NHS, only to be ignored when it comes to a pay settlement.
— Nick Adderley (@NorthantsChief) July 22, 2021
Adderley spoke out after Priti Patel became the first home secretary in more than a decade to receive a vote of no confidence from the Police Federation of England and Wales. My colleague Jamie Grierson has the story here.
This morning John Apter, the Police Federation national chair, explained on LBC the reasons for the vote. He said:
We feel bitterly let down, betrayed, and this isn’t just about the pay announcement that was, as you say, the final straw.
This goes back to the vaccination programme. Let’s look at the way that we were vilified and then hung out to dry during the pandemic, with the home secretary saying nice things and not following it up.
It’s not too late to do what the health secretary did, which is do a U-turn and make the announcement for the NHS staff.
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The RMT rail union has said that reduced rail services planned for next week, as a result of staff shortages, could lead to overcrowding on trains. Mick Lynch, the RMT general secretary, said:
There is a real danger of a headlong rush into these new measures driven by this inept government which could make a bad situation even worse.
We are already hearing of planned reductions to rail services next week due to staff shortages.
Before any implementation of new procedures, employers need to produce proper risk assessments agreed with the union that consider and control the enhanced risks to all staff and ensure that the principle objective of workplace safety is maintained and fully enforced.
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Firms will still face staff shortages despite two new isolation exemption schemes, says BCC
Firms will still face staff shortages as a result of people having to isolate despite the two schemes announced by the government last night (see 9.28am) that are intended to mitigate the problem, according to the British Chambers of Commerce. The BCC wants many more workers to be able to use daily testing as an alternative to isolation.
Hannah Essex, co-executive director of the British Chambers of Commerce, said:
While the announcement of a process which may exempt select critical workers from self-isolation in England will be a relief to some businesses, it will leave many more still facing critical staff shortages and lost revenue as the number of people being asked to isolate remains high.
Nearly half of the businesses we surveyed this week have had staff either off sick with Covid or self-isolating in the past two weeks ...
Pilot schemes for ‘test to release’ options have been running for some time now and we would urge the government to immediately bring forward the results of those test schemes and set out how this could be used to enable more double-vaccinated people to avoid self-isolation beyond this narrow group of critical workers.
Eustice says 10,000 food industry staff will benefit from exemption from isolation
Good morning. George Eustice, the environment secretary, said this morning that more than 10,000 people working in the food supply industry will benefit from a scheme to use daily testing as an alternative to isolation. It means that if staff are pinged by the NHS Covid app, or told to isolate by test and trace, because they have been in contact with someone testing positive, they will be able to stay at work provided they test negative. Announcing the scheme last night, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs said:
Daily contact testing [ie, testing for people who are contacts of people testing positive] will be rolled out to critical workplaces in the food supply chain so that contacts who would otherwise be self-isolating can instead take daily tests.
Priority testing sites have already been identified with industry for urgent implementation this week, including the largest supermarket distribution centres, with rollout to hundreds of sites planned to start next week, with up to 500 sites in scope.
The move will allow daily testing for staff to take place so they can continue their vital work to supplying food for the nation.
Explaining the impact of the plan this morning, Eustice said:
We’ve identified close to 500 key sites, that includes around 170 supermarket depots, and then another couple of hundred key manufacturers like our bread manufacturers, dairy companies and so on.
All of the people working in those key strategic sites, distribution depots and those manufacturing facilities will be able to use this scheme, and probably well over 10,000 people.
Confusingly, the scheme was announced at the same time as the government gave details of a separate plan to allow critical workers in 16 key sectors to also use testing as an alternative to isolation. But this is not a blanket policy; it will only apply to selected named individuals, after their employers have got permission for them to be included from the relevant government department.
In interviews this morning, Eustice defended the decision to keep the scope of the second scheme, covering critical workers, limited. Asked why the government was not allowing supermarket store staff, for example, to be able to use testing as an alternative to isolation in the way supermarket depot staff will be able to, he said the government wanted to stick with isolation as the policy for most people. He said:
Well, the main reason is that would be a really significant undertaking, as you’re talking then thousands of different shops, and many more people, and we still want to maintain the test, trace and isolate system.
We know that the most important thing is to ensure that those main arteries in our food supply chain keep working, that the lorries keep going from depots to get goods to store and that the food manufacturers can continue to manufacture the goods to get it to the depots.
When you get to store level, of course, yes, there will be some difficulties, they will have staff shortages. But it is easier to manage at that level.
Here is the agenda for the day.
9.30am: The ONS publishes figures on the social impact of coronavirus.
12pm: The ONS publishes its weekly Covid infection survey.
Afternoon: The government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies is expected to release a fresh batch of background papers.
And today the Scottish government is expected to release details of its own changes to isolation rules.
Politics Live has been a mix of Covid and non-Covid news recently and that will probably be the case today. For more coronavirus developments, do follow our global Covid live blog.
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