These charts from the OBR show how higher tax receipts, partly due to rising inflation, have given Rishi Sunak a fiscal windfall – which he’s largely banked, rather than spent.

Capital Economics’ Paul Dales says the chancellor appears to be holding some cash back until closer to the 2024 election for political reasons. That means underlying debt as a share of GDP is expected to be falling in 2024-25, hitting the government’s fiscal mandate.

But it would be better for the economy to use more of that firepower now, Dales adds:

What’s more, the chancellor showed where his political priorities lie by keeping back some funds to lower public borrowing and public debt further ahead.

The OBR said that he has £27.8bn (1% of GDP) headroom against his main fiscal mandate (that the underlying debt ratio is falling in three years’ time, ie in 2024/25) and £31.6bn (1.2% of GDP) of headroom against the supplementary fiscal rule (that the current budget is balanced in three years’ time, again in 2024/25).

That compares to £17.5bn and £25.1bn in the October budget. This implies the chancellor spent less than half of the improvement in the headroom and banked the rest.

Scotland’s finance secretary, Kate Forbes, has said that Rishi Sunak’s spring statement has “failed to address the biggest challenges facing households today”.

Forbes said that Scottish ministers had repeatedly called for the UK government to take further action on soaring energy bills and the cost of living crisis - including a reduction in VAT on household energy bills and support for those on low incomes.

But the Scottish Secretary, Alister Jack, insisted there would be £45m coming to the Scottish government as a result of the statement.

Forbes said:

We are doing all we can to tackle the cost of living crisis - including doubling the Scottish child payment from £10 per week per eligible child to £20 next month.

The UK government should have followed our lead and matched the 6% uprate on social security benefits which the Scottish government is adding to eight of the benefits we deliver.

Sunak pledged to cut the lowest rate of income tax, from 20% to 19% in 2024. Forbes pointed out that in Scotland, where different income tax bands apply, 19% is already the starter rate “in line with our commitment to progressive taxation, which makes Scotland the fairest taxed part of the UK”. [the starter rate applies to income between £12,571 to £14,667 this financial year]

The Scottish Labour leader, Anas Sarwar, said the announcement “does not touch the sides”.

Rishi Sunak could have taken steps to ease this cost of living crisis. To end the choice between heating and eating for those making impossible choices. He failed.

Here is some comment on the spring statement from journalists.

From Chris Giles, the FT’s economics editor

From Faisal Islam, the BBC’s economics editor

From a blog by Robert Peston, the ITV political editor

As the OBR says: ‘Higher inflation has already eroded the real value of the department budgets set in cash terms in October’s Spending Review by between £5bn and £17bn, while many departments are still coping with pandemic-related backlogs.’

In other words, hospitals and schools should brace to reduce their ambitions to catch up with treating sick people and correcting the schooling gaps caused by Covid-19. And, to add insult to injury, we haven’t yet seen the peak of the inflationary damage to public service resources.

Rishi Sunak says he has to be cautious in not spending more because rising inflation is massively increasing the cost of servicing the government’s near record debts. This bill comes through what it has to pay on its inflation-proofed or indexed borrowings, and because the Bank of England is putting up interest rates. But today Sunak – not by explicit policy but by refusing to offset the damage of inflation – is returning the UK to austerity. Which is completely counter to everything Boris Johnson claims to want or to represent.

If the relationship between him and the Chancellor was bad before the Spring Statement, I would now expect the rift to become almost irreparable.

From Fraser Nelson, the Spectator editor

Speaking of events...a Guardian Newsroom online panel will examine the living crisis next month, with our executive editor (Opinion), Hugh Muir, economic correspondent, Richard Partington and MP for Oxford East, Anneliese Dodds.

The Telegraph’s Simon Johnson has posted this chart, from the Chartered Institute of Taxation, showing how much more people in Scotland would be paying in income tax, at different salary bands, assuming the Scottish government does not match the proposed 1p income tax cut that Rishi Sunak has pencilled in for 2024.

As the BBC’s business editor, Simon Jack, points out, there is still some uncertainty as to whether this tax cut will ever materialise.

Here’s a breakdown of how Rishi Sunak’s changes on national insurance, fuel duty and income tax will affect consumers - and how benefit payments aren’t keeping up with inflation:

The Treasury has been retweeting from its Twitter account some of the positive reaction to the spring statement. Here is a sample.

Guardian Newsroom: The cost of living crisis

Next month the Guardian is hosting a livestreamed event on the cost of living crisis with journalists Hugh Muir and Richard Partington and the Labour MP Anneliese Dodds. They will be discussing the crisis and its impact on the poorest households.

It is on Thursday 14 April at 8pm BST and you can book tickets here.

The UK labour force is now expected to be 400,000 smaller in five years time than expected before the pandemic.

Nearly half of this decline is due to a smaller population, due to lower net inward migration, the OBR says.

But 210,00 is due to people leaving the labour force: with more early retirements and a rise in long-term sickness, leading to a higher inactivity rate among those of working age.

School leaders say the chancellor’s spring statement failed to address the financial pressures facing schools and teachers.

“Schools are reporting huge increases in their energy bills and the government expects them to fund pay awards out of these stretched budgets too,” said Geoff Barton, the general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders.

We are gravely concerned that [schools] are facing a fresh funding crisis. This is compounded by the inadequacy of the proposed pay award for many staff which comes after a pay freeze and is likely to worsen retention rates.

Dr Patrick Roach, the general secretary of the NASUWT teachers’ union, said latest research had shown that more than one in five teachers are “very worried” about their finances, with some using food banks and 12% taking a second job.

While the announcements about fuel duty and national insurance will offer some modest assistance, our members are still facing a deepening crisis in making ends meet and there was little in today’s statement that will offer them much comfort or reassurance.

There was similar dismay in the early years sector. Neil Leitch, the CEO of the Early Years Alliance, said:

Today’s spring statement was an opportunity for the government to address the early years funding crisis but, yet again, it has failed to do so.

Ultimately it is parents and providers who will pay the price.

Economist Kallum Picking of Berenberg bank says we shouldn’t be fooled - the UK tax burden is going up.

In contrast to his claims that he is lowering the UK tax burden, UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak today unveiled a conservative fiscal plan that will raise the UK tax burden to its highest level since 1949 (see 2.47pm’s graph).

Based on his latest plans, which include some modest measures to buffer households against rising energy prices as well as tax cuts, which barely offset the sizeable tax windfall coming from forecast revision, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) projects that tax revenues will increase as a percentage of GDP to 36.2% by 2025 from 33.0% in 2019.

The chancellor has also created headroom to ease aggressively when the next downturn comes, Pickering adds, by banking some of the tax windfall from improved OBR forecasts, and the change in student loan repayments.

That could also allow a ‘modest’ pre-election giveaway in two years’ time, Pickering adds:

If the UK returns to solid growth once the dual shock of Putin’s war and surging inflation (which is worsened by, but preceded the war) has faded, we would expect the chancellor to announce modest tax cuts just before the next general election scheduled for May 2024.

And here is some more party political reaction to the spring statement.

From Kate Forbes, the SNP Scottish government’s finance minister

From Christine Jardine, the Lib Dem Treasury spokesperson

Families were looking to the Chancellor to offer them hope, instead he is adding to their pain by refusing to scrap his unfair tax rises.

People seeing the biggest plunge in living standards in fifty years will see through the chancellor’s spin.

Rishi Sunak has failed to introduce a windfall tax on the super profits of oil and gas producers, which could have raised billions to help people with their energy bills. And he has refused to bring in an emergency cut to VAT, as Liberal Democrats have called for, which would put £600 back into the pockets of the average family.

From Sammy Wilson, the DUP Treasury spokeperson

It would be churlish not to accept that the chancellor has sought to deal with many of the issues that face working families today. But I believe that given the windfall in taxes which he has experienced that there could have been more done to help with fuel costs, energy bills, and other cost-of-living increases.

It’s significant that the chancellor cannot apply all of his taxes to Northern Ireland because of the Northern Ireland Protocol, it shows it needs to be dealt with.

From Ben Lake, the Plaid Cymru Treasury spokesperson

Today‘s statement finally acknowledges that families are facing a cost of living crisis, but it is disappointing the chancellor failed to bring forward measures to actually address the scale of the problem. The seriousness of the crisis called for a fundamental change of approach, not further tinkering around the edges a broken strategy.

Plaid Cymru have long called for targeted support for people and businesses who are struggling with fuel costs. A 5p cut to fuel duty, while welcome, will still leave people in rural areas struggling to shoulder the cost of essential journeys, whilst giving a subsidy to the Chelsea tractors that pollute the cities. A targeted approach would have been fairer for both the public and the planet.

From Caroline Lucas, the Green party MP

This is from Nick Macpherson, a former Treasury permanent secretary, illustrating the “smoke and mirrors” quality of changes to the tax system - and why claims that taxes are being cut overall are best not taken seriously.

Union leaders have criticised Rishi Sunak for “tinkering around the edges” of the cost-of-living crisis.

The Unite general secretary, Sharon Graham, said:

With inflation at its highest for 30 years, Rishi Sunak’s spring statement just tinkers around the edges of this shocking cost-of-living crisis. Workers will still be facing sleepless nights worrying about how to make ends meet, overwhelmed by rocketing prices.

His spring statement does nothing to tackle the corporate elite, the billionaires who stash their loot but sack UK workers by Zoom. Once again, ordinary working people bear the broadest burden while the super-rich get off scot-free.

Dr Mary Bousted, joint general secretary of the National Education Union, said:

If the government is serious about protecting living standards and building a strong economy, it must reverse the real-terms cuts to teacher pay. Instead, with RPI inflation reaching 8.2% and in the midst of the worst cost-of-living crisis in decades, the government plans yet more real terms pay cuts for teachers.

The TUC general secretary, Frances O’Grady, said:

In the midst of the biggest wages and bills crisis in living memory, Rishi Sunak’s spring statement has failed families who need help now. We did not get the urgent help with soaring bills that families need, and the rise in the national insurance threshold will mostly benefit better-off households.

The small print shows that pay packets are now expected to fall in value by £11 a week this year. After 12 years of Tory government, Britain needs a pay rise, but this chancellor has no plan to get wages rising and give working people long-term financial security.

Manuel Cortes, the general secretary of the TSSA transport union, said:

This government is fuelling - quite literally - a car-led recovery instead of promoting climate friendly solutions such as public transport.

We should be making public transport cheaper in the face of spiralling, out-of-control fuel prices. Other countries are cutting the cost of public transport or making it free for commuters, but this government has increased rail fares and is failing to encourage more people to take public transport.

According to the Office for Budget Responsibility, the tax burden - taxation as a proportion of GDP - is now forecast to rise to levels last seen when Clement Attlee was prime minister even faster than previously expected. It is now due to peak at 36.3% (on the national accounts taxes measure) in 2025-26.

This chart from the Office for Budget Responsibility shows how real household disposable incomes per person are set for the largest fall in a single financial year since records began in 1956-57, down 2.2% in 2022-23.

The OBR has lifted its forecast for nominal earnings growth. Pay is expected to rise 5.3% this year, up from 3.9% forecast in October due to “tight labour market conditions” and as workers seek better-paid-jobs.

But wages will fall in real terms (after inflation) this year and next, meaning around five years of stagnation.

The OBR says:

Wage growth is not expected to fully compensate for higher inflation, much of which is externally driven, meaning that real wages fall in both 2022 and 2023.

Thereafter, earnings growth eases a little further, but inflation drops back more rapidly, resulting in a partial recovery in real wages in the final three years of the forecast. On a post-tax basis, real wages stagnate over much of the forecast period.

At a post-statement briefing a Treasury spokesman blamed inflation on the war in Ukraine and acknowledged that much of the help would not come until next year. He said:

The chancellor set out in his speech that obviously the costs of the war in Ukraine are going to have a domestic impact and he can’t fully protect people from all of those costs. But he’s set out a plan today that provides £22bn worth of support for households up and down the country next year as they grapple with some of these challenges.

Asked why there was little in the statement that would help those not working, earning too little to pay tax and pensioners, the spokesman pointed to the £500m increase in the household support fund administered by local councils for those most in need.

And here are some more lines from Rachel Reeves’s response to the spring statement in the Commons. Reeves accused the chancellor of living in “Sunakland”, an alternative reality. (See 1.30pm.) She said that, despite announcing tax cuts, overall Sunak was still putting up tax.

Despite the chancellor’s reluctant measures, the facts are that he is still taking money out of people’s purses and wallets with an increase in national insurance contributions.

The changes that he is making today beg the question, why did he embark on these changes in the first place, despite the warnings from the Labour party and from many many others?

She also said the national insurance increase remained a mistake.

The actual reality is that this chancellor’s failure to back a windfall tax and his stubborn desire to pursue a national insurance tax rise are the wrong choices.

In eight days, people’s energy bills will be rising by 54%, two weeks today the chancellor’s tax hike will start hitting working people and their employers.

His national insurance tax rise was a bad idea last September and he’s admitted it’s an even worse one today.

The chancellor is making an historic mistake. Today was the day to scrap the tax rise on jobs, today was the day to bring forward a windfall tax, today was the day for the chancellor to set out a plan to support British businesses.

As Sky’s Ed Conway points out, the spring statement scorecard (on pages 27 and 28 of this document) shows that the biggest earner for the Treasury in the table is the amount it will gain from the changes to the student loan repayment rules. In 2022-23, the changes amount to a notional benefit of more than £11bn (mostly because more students are expected to repay loans under the new arrangements).

The changes did not receive as much attention as they probably deserved because they were announced by the government on 24 February – which was the day Russia invaded Ukraine.

This is probably just as well for the goverment. Its own equality impact assessment of the plans said that those who would lose out the most would be poorer graduates, as well as those from the north of England.

Rishi Sunak has undone just over a quarter of the overall personal tax rises he announced last year, the OBR points out.

Today’s changes reverse around a sixth of the overall net tax rises he has announced since becoming Chancellor.

Rishi Sunak’s tax cuts and rebates on energy bills will only offset one-third of the historic blow to living standards faced by UK households, the OBR says:

The fiscal watchdog explains:

Despite higher inflation pushing up debt interest costs, borrowing is set to more than halve from its post-world war two high of £322bn (15.0% of GDP) in 2020-21 to £128bn (5.4% of GDP) in 2021-22, £55bn less than we forecast in October.

Borrowing in 2022-23 is then £16bn higher than we forecast in October, at £99bn (3.9% of GDP). That reflects record high debt interest costs of £83bn, double our October forecast, and near-term rebates and tax cuts that inject £17.6bn into the economy.

The latter offset half the blow to household finances from higher energy and fuel bills and a third of the overall fall in living standards that households would otherwise have faced.

The OBR points out that some of the support for energy bills will be recouped in future years, while the 5p a litre cut to fuel duty is to be “more than fully reversed” next year.

Over half the £9bn in energy costs support is recouped over the subsequent five years, while the 5p fuel duty cut is to be more than fully reversed next year. The ‘pay later’ phase of these measures comes when energy bills are set to fall back.

(The £200 rebate to many energy bills this autumn is clawed back by a £40 a year levy in bills over the next five years).

The increase to the national insurance threshold announced by Rishi Sunak will not come into force in time for the new tax year in April. Instead it will apply from July.

The Treasury says that is “the earliest date that will allow all payroll software developers and employers to update their systems and implement changes”.

The increase in the National Insurance threshold to £12,570 (from £9,600 today) is a tax cut for middle and high-income workers, explains Torsten Bell of the Resolution Foundation:

In a research paper earlier this week, Resolution explained that the poorest half of households would only receive a third of the benefit from increasing the NI threshold [it won’t help those earning less than £12,500, or not in work at all]:

They said.

A rise in the NI threshold...would still see more than half of the benefit going to the richest half of the population (only £1 in every £3 would go to the bottom half, who would on average gain £250 a year if the threshold were raised to £12,500).

The Treasury has now published all the spring statement documents on its website. There are here.

Here is the main spring statement document (pdf).

And here is the spring statement tax plan (pdf).

But Paul Johnson, head of the IFS, is much less impressed by the tax cut pencilled in for 2024.

And he says Sunak seems to have done nothing for those reliant on benefits.

These are from Paul Johnson, the head of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, on the decision to lift the national insurance threshold.

That’s it. Sunak has finished.

Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, is responding.

She says Sunak could have put a windfall tax on energy companies, or properly cut his national insurance increase, but he didn’t.

She says Sunak talks about security. But his choices are making the cost of living crisis worse, not better, for people.

Sunak says the government has a record of cutting tax.

He ends by saying his tax plan will deliver the biggest net cut to personal taxes in more than a quarter of a century.

Inflation this year is going to be much higher than previously forecast.

The Office for Budget Responsibility now estimates inflation will average 7.4% this year - meaning an extremely painful squeeze on families, with real wages likely to fall through the year for millions of workers.

Last October, it forecast inflation of 4% this year (which would already have been double the Bank of England’s 2% target).

We learned this morning that inflation hit 6.2% in February. The energy price cap is 54% in April (with another rise feared in the autumn), and commodity prices are being pushed up by the Ukraine war, so 2022 will bring much more pain to households.

Sunak says a new tax cut for small businesses, an allowance for workers they employ, will save them up to £1,000.

Sunak says the business rates discount coming into effect next month for retail, hospitality and leisure businesses will save them up to £110,000.

A typical pub will save £5,000, he says.

Sunak says in the autumn he will cut tax rates on business investment.

Sunak says R&D tax credits are being reformed.

And in the autum he will decide whether to make the R&D expenditure credit more generous.

This is from Torsten Bell, head of the Resolution Foundation thinktank, on the NI threshold increase.

Sunak says the NHS now has a dedicated tax supporting it: the health and care levy.

But that is compatible with reducing taxes on families, he says.

Over the last decade it has been a Conservative mission to cut taxes for working people, he claims.

Some opposition MPs are laughing at this.

Sunak says underlying debt is falling.

But he says small changes to the economic outlook could wipe out this headroom.

He says this year the government will be spending £83bn on debt interest. That is the highest amount on record, and almost four times what was spent last year.

Sunak says he is putting another £500m into the household support fund, which allows councils to help poorer families.

Sunak sums up aid already delivered to Ukraine. And sanctions against Russia are unprecedented, he says.

Be in no doubt: these sanctions, coordinated with our allies, are working.

The rouble has plunged, the Russian central bank has more than doubled interest rates to 20%, and the Moscow stock market has been largely closed since the invasion began.

He says he is proud to say we stand with Ukraine.

Sunak is now talking about security – military security, and financial.

He uses the passage briefed overnight. See 9.37am.

Sunak says people in Ukraine are seeking protection and soldiers are defending their land. The sorrow we feel for them, and admiration for their bravery, is matched by our gratitude to our armed forces.

That is underpined by a strong economy.

But, behind Putin’s invasion, is a calculation that democracies are weak.

This calculation is mistaken.

What Putin sees as division, we see as debate. What he sees as chaos, we see as creativity.

Here’s our news story on Boris Johnson saying that P&O Ferries appears to have broken the law when it suddenly sacked 800 workers last week:

Shailesh Vara (Con) says it is 50 years since the UK took in the Ugandan Asians. Will the PM learn the lessons from the success of that scheme?

Johnson says the UK is “overwhelmingly generous” to refugees.

Bill Esterson (Lab) asks the PM if he will tell DP World that, if they want to run free ports, they should reinstate P&O workers.

Johnson says his overwhelming concern is to protect jobs. But he also wants to attract investment, he says.

Angela Richardson (Con) asks if the PM supports research into why so many girls are experiencing gender distress.

Johnson says he would be happy to have a meeting on this. MPs realise this issue requires sensitivity, tact and care. If people want to make a transition, they should be treated with maximum generosity, he says.

But he says, when it comes to distinguishing between a man and a woman, “the basic facts of biology remain overwhelmingly important”.

Matt Western (Lab) asks about the PM’s attendance at Evgeny Lebedev’s parties, and says the PM’s “many weaknesses” may leave him open to blackmail. Does he know why MI6 do not trust him? (It is not clear if “him” is the PM, or Lebedev.)

Johnson says he could not detect a question in this “minestrone of nonsense”.

Steve Brine (Con) says people cannot work because their driving licences are stuck at the DVLA. It is not giving the service it should.

Johnson agrees, saying he has read some surprising things about the DVLA.

Mary Kelly Foy (Lab) says working people are being hammered by this government. She refers to the DWP job losses, as well as P&O. Why won’t the PM stop local communities loing high quality jobs.

Johnson says the government is helping people get back to work.

Andrew Percy (Con) asks about anti-semitism in univerities.

Johnson says for too long universities have been tolerant of casual antisemitism. This must be rooted out, he says.

Rebecca Long Bailey (Lab) says today the Mirror has uncovered data showing that the government may have given wrong figures about the number of people exposed to radiation through nuclear testing in the past.

Johnson says is office is organising a proper meeting on this issue.

Naz Shah (Lab) says Bradford has it all - apart from government support. Will the PM reverse the snub to it in the northern rail plan, and put a new stop in Bradford?

Johnson says the government is looking at how it can ensure high-speed rail goes to Bradford.

Graham Stringer (Lab) says the Football Association is refusing to move the Liverpool/Manchester City final from Wembley, even though having 60,000 people travel to London is bad for the enviroment. Will he legislate for an independent regulator for football?

Johnson says the government will introduce an independent football regulator.

Jason McCartney (Con) says he has a vibrant Ukrainian community in his constituency. Will the PM thank everyone who has rallied round to support Ukraine.

Johnson says he is proud of the UK’s response. Apart from the US, the UK is the biggest bilateral donor to Ukraine.

Ian Blackford, the SNP leader at Westminster, says an aircraft is to leave the UK to pick up 50 Ukrainian orphans who will be starting a new life in Scotland. He thanks the government for its help with this, and hopes that more follow.

He says the people who bore the brunt of the health pandemic are now being hit by the cost of living crisis. The Scottish government has increased benefit payments for children. Will Westminster match that?

Johnson says the government is doing all it can to help. It wants to do more.

Referring to the orphans, he says this is a good example of how the government can cooperate with the SNP.

Blackford says inflation is at 6% and going up. The chancellor needs to ditch his photographer and listen to Martin Lewis. (See 11.48am.) He says the chancellor has £20bn extra to spend. Will he use this to scrap the national insurance hike?

Johnson says Blackford will get the answer to the questions in 10 minutes.

Bob Blackman (Con) asks if the PM agrees the age at which people can buy tobacco should be raised from 18 to 21.

Johnson says smoking is the biggest cause of preventable death in the country. A review of smoking is under way, he says.

Starmer says Labour proposed a bill to end fire and rehire on Monday, but government MPs abstained. Why should P&O workers take any comfort from Johnson’s “half-arsed bluster and waffle”.

Johnson says it is two years since lockdown. But thanks to the chancellor’s measures, the economy has recovered. It is now bigger than it was when the pandemic began. The government got the big calls right. Labour would have kept the country in lockdown, and it would not have protected P&O workers, because the ships would have been kept in port, he claims.

UPDATE: From Politico’s Esther Webber

Starmer says that is what Johnson promised two years ago. But the PM does not have the backbone to act, he says.

Johnson says the law P&O is relying on was introduced as a result of EU directives.

He says the government will ensure workers have the best protection of all, which is a job.

Starmer says, if the PM only learned about it on the day, he did not read his WhatsApp briefing. Can the PM say these companies will not get any more taxpayers’ money until they reinstate the workers?

Johnson says the government is taking legal action. But if Labour is asking the government to “pitchfork away investment”, which is what it usually wants, the government won’t. That would be wrong.

Starmer says, when Owen Paterson was on the ropes, the PM ripped up the rulebook to help him. The government had advance notice of this, but it did nothing.

Johnson says Starmer did not listen to his first answer. He says he learned about the sackings on the day, and the government is taking action.

Johnson says it is “fantastic” that 150,000 people have offered to house Ukrainian refugees.

At PMQs the first question is about the treatment of “child Q”. Boris Johnson says this was a deeply concerning incident and the Met is investigating.

This is from Alison Thewliss, the SNP Treasury spokesperson, showing the heavily redacted copy of the chancellor’s speech that she gets in advance.

From Sky’s Beth Rigby

This is from the Sun’s political editor, Harry Cole.

Robert Colvile, head of the Centre for Policy Studies thinktank, has got a useful thread starting here explaining why, even though the Treasury may be collecting more than it expected in tax, that does not really help the chancellor. It starts here.

This is from Martin Lewis, founder of MoneySavingExpert and one of the public figures trusted most by the public on financial matters. Yesterday he warned that people are facing a “fiscal punch in the face” when the energy price cap goes up next month.

This is from Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, who will be responding to the Rishi Sunak statement.

Laura Kuenssberg, the BBC political editor, says Rishi Sunak was holding two documents as he left 11 Downing Street this morning.

Some 15,800 visas have been issued under the Ukraine family scheme as of 5pm yesterday, the Home Office has said. So far there have been a total of 33,500 applications submitted, according to provisional data published on the department’s website.

Richard Hughes, head of the Office for Budget Responsibility, has also been posing for a pre-spring statement picture - although his office is considerably less grand and photogenic than Rishi Sunak’s.

Last night, in an interview with Andrew Marr on LBC, the deputy Labour leader, Angela Rayner, said the national insurance increase due to come into force next month was “regressive”. It is a common claim on the left (the SNP make it too), but it is not the view of mainstream economists. This, from the Resolution Foundation (a thinktank run by a former Ed Miliband adviser) shows the distributional impact of policy changes taking effect in the 2022-23 tax year, and it shows how the national insurance increase will hit richer households more than poorer ones.

At the time the national insurance increase was announced, economists did argue that putting up income tax would have been even more progressive. But that does not make the NI hike regressive.

This is from Newsnight’s Ben Chu, on what is driving the inflation increase announced today.

According to a Sky News report, P&O Ferries did not need to give the government advance notice of its plans to sack 800 staff because of a change to employment law signed off by Chris Grayling when he was transport secretary in 2018. This meant ministers did not need to be notified about mass redundancies if vessels were registerd overseas. In a letter to the business department (pdf), released yesterday, the P&O Ferries chief executive, Peter Hebblethwaite, cited this as the reason why ministers did not get the usual notice; the ferries are all registered outside the UK.

Commenting on the story, Louise Haigh, the shadow transport secretary, said:

The Conservatives have given the green light to rogue employers to act with impunity. This scandal is the consequence of a decade in which the Tories have taken an axe to workers’ rights.

Talk is cheap - Ministers must act now and stand up for these loyal British workers. A Labour government will strengthen employee protections and ban fire and rehire to give people the security they deserve for an honest day’s work.

Today marks the second anniversary of the day when Boris Johnson announced the strict Covid lockdown, telling the nation that he was ordering people to stay at home. The anniversary is not getting as much attention as it might be doing otherwise, because there is rather a lot else on today, but Mark Drakeford, the Welsh first minister, has posted this on Twitter, which is perfect for anyone needing a break from spring statement frenzy. It coincides with the Welsh government announcing a third commemorative woodland to remember those who died in the pandemic.

Neil O’Brien, the levelling up minister, is giving evidence to the Commons Welsh affairs committee, and he has just told its members that they an expect to hear more about the allocation of levelling up funding in the spring statement later today. He is appearing alongside Sue Gray, who as second permanent secretary at the Cabinet Office oversees policy relating to the union. Obviously, she is much better known for her role as Partygate investigator, but no one has mentioned that, and so far her only contribution has been a very dull one about about Whitehall cooperation with Welsh local government.

Lady Howe, widow of the late former chancellor Lord Howe, has died aged 90 after a battle with cancer, her family said in a statement.

Tony Danker, the director general of the CBI, told Sky News this morning that Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, would be taking a big risk if he did not help the “hardest hit” today. He said:

[Sunak] has to send a signal that now is the time to invest, now is the time to grow - we need that more than ever given the year were facing ahead ... I think it would be very high-risk for the chancellor to not take action today to help those hardest hit in our economy and to help stimulate growth.

Last night the Treasury released a short extract from the speech Rishi Sunak will give delivering his spring statement, in which he will stress his desire to offer people “security”. He will say:

We will confront this challenge to our values not just in the arms and resources we send to Ukraine but in strengthening our economy here at home.

So when I talk about security, yes – I mean responding to the war in Ukraine.

But I also mean the security of a faster growing economy.

The security of more resilient public finances.

And security for working families as we help with the cost of living.

If this sounds familiar, that’s because Keir Starmer used very similar language in his “contract with the British people” speech in January.

Andy Street, the Conservative mayor for the West Midlands, told the Today programme that he hoped the spring thresholds would see tax thresholds go up. He said:

One other thing I hope [Rishi Sunak, the chancellor] will do is this is really about that group who want to manage, want to look after their own finances, the decision not to increase the thresholds around income tax and national insurance. I hope he will actually reconsider that because one of the ways we can put money directly into the hands of those who need it is move those thresholds forward.

Many Tories want, and expect, Sunak to use the statement to raise the threshold at which people start paying national insurance from £9,880 (the level from April) closer to £12,570, which is the threshold above which people start paying income tax. This would protect the low paid from the £12bn national insurance hike coming into force next month.

Street also said that he hoped there would be more help for people with fuel bills later this year, and that the measures would be targeted at poorer families. He said:

I would hope that [Sunak] will actually say for October, when the next price cap comes, there will be a further move and I hope it will be targeted, particularly through the warm homes discount, so we really can think about those people who we have tended to call the ‘just about managings’, of whom there are many more in places like this than the affluent areas.

That sounded like a veiled criticism of the fuel support package announced by Sunak last month, which was intended to help most families and included very litte specifically targeted at low-income households.