In Shakespeare’s Hamlet, the prince laments his sense that the world is out of joint, and he must “set it right”. That sense of responsibility and frustration similarly looms over the Conservative conference in Birmingham. The party is struggling to come to terms with its worst electoral result since its foundation in 1834. The turn to market fundamentalism and away from a social conscience has prevented the emergence of a modern, progressive Conservatism. The four candidates for Conservative leader are weighed down by the party’s revered past and yearn, in different ways, to return to it.
In their arguments can be found a hankering for a smaller state and a meaner country that is indifferent to its changing social complexion. The quartet may be playing to the gallery, hoping to pick up enough votes among MPs to get into a runoff when Tory party members will have the final say. But this is limiting the party’s appeal. The future lies in what is new. Ideas for change ought to be judged in terms of their plausibility and persuasiveness, not for whether they draw reactionary applause.
This mistake was made by Kemi Badenoch, the clear favourite among party members. She began her campaign by taking on David Tennant, the former Dr Who actor, over LGBT rights. That might be popular with some Tories. But her claim that maternity pay was “excessive” revealed a cold and unkind streak. Most voters are repelled by the Tories’ nasty party politics, and Ms Badenoch was forced to clarify her stance, raising questions about her judgment.
The four leadership candidates are all committed to cutting taxes and reducing the size of the state. Yet all the polling evidence suggests that voters are unconcerned by the growth of the state after the pandemic and the cost of living crisis, when taxation and spending rose to a record amount. Only a tenth of voters polled say they want the government to reduce taxes and spend less.
At a fringe event for the thinktank Demos, Sir John Curtice suggested that perhaps the pandemic had pushed society in the opposite direction to the one Tory candidates want to drive it to. The pollster said that Rishi Sunak’s tax cuts had very little impact with voters in July.
Even worse, those who voted Tory in 2019 but were disillusioned by Boris Johnson’s Partygate scandal, the Liz Truss economic debacle, the cost of living crisis, the state of the NHS and high levels of taxation, defected to Reform. But Sir John said those who were similarly discontented but happy with the size of the state defected to Labour. He thought a focus on shrinking government would do little to help the Tories. It’s difficult to disagree.
The Tory leadership hopefuls all appear to underestimate the public’s post-Covid tack towards collectivism. The party is being left behind as voters become ever more socially liberal. On economics and society, the Conservatives look out of touch. At the last election, only 8% of 18- to 29-year-olds voted for the party. Only 12% of those in their 30s backed the Conservatives. The Tories remain irrelevant for large swathes of the population because they appear unwilling to find new solutions for our time. The country is looking for politicians with the ability, the courage and the right ideas. They can’t be found in the contest to lead the Conservative party.
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