Newsflash: Microsoft users are reporting problems using the software giant’s suite of business applications.

According to the Downdetector website, there has been a surge in the number of people reporting problems with Microsoft 365, which includes Outlook.com, OneDrive, Microsoft Teams, and online versions of Office applications such as Word, Excel and Outlook.

Reports peaked just before 10am UK time.

Microsoft’s service status page is currently reporting that “Everything is up and running.”

But independent community website Windows Forum reports that there has indeed been disruption.

They say:

In a whirlwind of frustration and confusion, Microsoft 365 services have hit a significant snag, disrupting the workdays of countless office workers. From the early hours of the morning on November 25, reports began flooding in, particularly focused on Outlook, which has become the go-to email client for many companies.

As the sun rose, so did complaints on platforms like Downdetector, painting a vivid picture of an office environment turned chaotic.

Microsoft 365 Outage Locks UK Users Out of Outlook: What You Need to Know https://t.co/A7a56FRcZS

— WindowsForum (@windowsforum) November 25, 2024

The deputy governor of the Bank of England has said how companies pass on higher employer national insurance contributions will be influenced by the UK’s current tight labour market.

Clare Lombardelli said the impact on UK inflation from the government’s £25bn increase in employer NICs was “uncertain” because there was a number of ways that companies would respond.

Business leaders have warned that the measure will lead to job losses, weaker wage growth, and firms passing on the costs in the form of higher prices charged to consumers.

Speaking at a conference in London on Monday, Lombardelli said:

“We have to see how firms will respond to the fact we do still have a relatively tight labour market.”

On NICs, Lombardelli also said:

“It’s a big policy change and it’ll have a large impact, exactly what that impact will be is uncertain.”

She said the “early conversations” Threadneedle Street was having with companies showed “quite a range of proposed responses” depending on the size of a firm and the sector it was operating in.

In her first speech since her appointment as the Bank’s deputy governor for monetary policy in July, she warned there were risks to persistently high inflation from resilience in wage growth.

While annual wage growth has slowed from a peak of 8.1% in mid-2023 to 4.8% in the three months to September, she said there was some evidence that the “process of wage disinflation may be slowing.”

As covered earlier, Lombardelli added:

“It’s too early to declare victory on inflation. It’s often been said that the last mile may be the hardest, and that’s where we are now.”

Rising inflation may hit UK consumer spending this Christmas, supermarket group Asda has warned.

Asda’s latest Income Tracker shows that household disposable income fell in October for only the second time this year.

Household disposable income decreased by £1.98 in October, Asda reports, due to the pick-up in inflation last month.

This has left the average UK household with £247 per week to spend, after tax and essential purchase such as groceries, electricity, gas, transport costs and mortgage interest payments or rent.

The CEBR thinktank, who produce the Income Tracker on behalf of Asda, predict that households will face “dampened spending power over the festive period”

Sam Miley, managing economist and forecasting lead at Cebr, says:

“October’s reading was only the second time this year that the Income Tracker reading has fallen on the month.”

“This was largely expected, given the increase in the Ofgem price cap that took place at the start of the month, bringing higher energy bills. These increased energy prices will persist over the rest of Q4, leading to slightly dampened spending power over the festive period.”

Across age groups, those aged 30 to 49 experienced the fastest annual rise in the cost of essential spending, which increased by 3.8% to £765 in October.

These households, often made up of younger families with children, face significant essential expenses, including childcare costs, Asda points out.

CBI chief executive Rain Newton-Smith has kicked off the business lobby group’s annual conference in Westminster, with the strapline, “Time for Growth”.

She begain by praising the government, for offering more stability and certainty - including by offering a “corporate tax roadmap”; making full expensing permanent; and freeing up more resources for investment by changing the fiscal rules.

Rain-Smith also welcomed the reset of relations with the EU, and ministers’ overtures to China.

She said:

“This government has put us in a strong position by drawing the curtain on a near decade of instability at home.

But the main thrust of Newton-Smith’s address, as well trailed in the press this morning, was an attack on the £25bn tax raid on businesses, announced in the budget.

“What really defines growth is the decisions made in boardrooms up and down the country,” Newton-Smith said, adding:

“It’s CFOs asking, ‘can we afford to invest? Can we afford to expand? Can we afford to take a chance on people? Well after the budget, the answer we’re hearing from so many firms is, ‘not yet’”

She suggested many firms, in particular in retail and hospitality, were now in “damage control,” insisting, “tax rises like this must never again be simply done to business.

Instead, Newton-Smith called for an “elevated partnership,” between government and businesses. She cited three specific areas: long-promised business tax reform, tax breaks for occupational health, and reform of the apprenticeship levy.

Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch and the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, will both address business leaders here in Westminter later.

In a reference to the Guardian’s revelations of sexual misconduct at the lobby group, which sparked an existential crisis, Newton-Smith acknowledged the CBI had travelled a “difficult road”. She was applauded when she said the CBI was, “back in business”.

She also joked about Boris Johnson’s rambling speech here three years ago, saying that today, there will be “hopefully not a Peppa Pig in sight!”.

Over in Germany, business confidence has taken another hit as firms grow more pessimistic about the economic situation, and the outlook for the future.

The Business Climate Index produced by the Ifo institute has fallen to 85.7 points in November, down from 86.5 points in October.

The decline in business morale was mainly due to the poorer assessment of the current situation, although expectations also fell slightly, Ifo said.

Ifo says:

Sentiment among companies in Germany has become gloomier….

The German economy is floundering.

Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING, reckons the drop in confidence is due to restructuring announcements from larger corporates, an escalation of the war in Ukraine and still-weak industrial order books and consumption.

Germany companies also face the threat of new tariffs from the next Trump administration, he points out, which would add to Germany’s economic risks as 10% of German exports go to the US.

Brzeski adds:

All in all, today’s Ifo index adds to the evidence that the German economy remains stuck in stagnation and that after meagre growth in the third quarter, a (technical) winter recession looks likely.

Newsflash: A deputy governor at the Bank of England has warned that it is “too early to declare victory” in the fight against inflation.

Clare Lombardelli has told a conference at the Bank this morning that inflation has fallen steeply over the past two years. But, she is concerned that there are signs that the process of “wage disinflation” may be slowing, which would keep the cost of living rising faster than the Bank’s target.

She cites data from the Bank’s Decision Maker Panel (DMP) survey, which shows that UK businesses expect to raise pay by between 2% and 4% next year.

Wage growth would need to be around 3% to be consistent with inflation at target, Lombardelli says, suggesting that higher earnings growth would make it harder for the Bank to cut interest rates.

Opening today’s Bank of England Watchers Conference in London, Lombardelli says:

The outlook for wages and services prices is unclear from here.

We need to see more evidence that wage growth and services inflation will continue their journey down to target-consistent rates.

ut there are some signs that the process of wage disinflation may be slowing, as shown in Chart 5, so it’s too early to declare victory on inflation. It’s often been said that the last mile may be the hardest, and that’s where we are now.

In her first speech as Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy, Lombardelli concludes:

The UK economy has made good progress on disinflation. The shocks that drove inflation up have dissipated and inflation has returned to around target.

But the more persistent components of inflation and uncertainties around how the labour market will evolve are cause for concern. So we need careful observation of all the relevant economic data and intelligence as we seek to gradually reduce policy restriction.

In the mining sector, Anglo American has agreed a deal to sell its remaining coal operations in Australia to US rival Peabody Energy for up to $3.78bn (£3bn).

The sale is part of Anglo’s push to focus on copper and iron ore production, after it fought off a takeover approach from BHP Group earlier this year.

The six-month freeze preventing BHP making another approach expires at the end of this week, although its chair said last month that BHP had “moved on”, and will focus on other growth opportunities instead…

Barclays has confirmed that it has withdrawn its legal action against the FCA, paving the way for this morning’s fine.

But, the bank also says that it doesn’t accept the FCA’s findings over its Qatari fundraising – but is keen to ‘draw a line’ over the long-running issue.

In a statement just released, Barclays says:

Barclays PLC (“Barclays”) announces that it has agreed with the Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”) to withdraw its references to the Upper Tribunal (the “Reference”) of the Decision Notices regarding Barclays and Barclays Bank PLC concerning the 2008 capital raisings, first published by the FCA on 23 September 2022 (the “Decision Notices”).

In view of the time elapsed since the events, Barclays wishes to draw a line under the issues referred to in the Decision Notices and has decided not to contest the Decision Notices further.

Barclays does not accept the findings of the Decision Notices and this has been acknowledged by the FCA.

Notwithstanding the difference of view, Barclays has concluded that the interests of the Bank, its shareholders and other stakeholders are best served by withdrawing the References.

A provision in respect of the financial penalty imposed by the FCA was taken in 2022 and there is no material financial impact on Barclays.

Newsflash: Barclays has been fined £40m by City regulators over allegedly secret payments it made to Qatari investors during the financial crisis 16 years ago.

The Financial Conduct Authority has announced it has fined Barclays £40m “for its failure to disclose certain arrangements with Qatari entities in 2008”, which the regulator says was “reckless and lacked integrity”.

The fine relates to the £322m the bank paid to Qatar in 2008, allegedly in exchange for the gas-rich Gulf state investing £4bn in Barclays, helping save the lender from a UK government bailout.

The fees were seen by critics as a way for Qatar to effectively purchase Barclays shares at a heavily discounted price that was not offered to other investors, when the City was reeling from the financial crisis.

The FCA had provisionally proposed fining Barclays £50m – which the bank was appealing against.

That case had been due to be heard in the Upper Tribunal today, but the FCA says Barclays has now withdrawn its referral.

Steve Smart, joint executive director of enforcement and market oversight at the FCA says:

‘Barclays’ misconduct was serious and meant investors did not have all the information they should have had. However, the events took place over 16 years ago and we recognise that Barclays is a very different organisation today, having implemented change across the business.

‘It is important that listed firms provide investors with the information they need.’

The FCA also says it recognises that this case concerns disclosure decisions made in the context of “very large and complex capital raisings” that took place many years ago under “considerable market pressure” in October 2008 (following the collapse of Lehman Brothers).

Back in 2020, three former Barclays bankers accused of funnelling secret fees to Qatar in exchange for emergency funding at the height of the 2008 financial crisis were been found not guilty of fraud.

The FCA originally revealed it was investigating the controversial fee arrangements back in 2013, but paused its investigation during a criminal trial launched by the Serious Fraud Office (SFO). However, the SFO failed to win a trial against Barclays over the Qatar deal, and the case collapsed in 2018.

The boss of Britain’s Greggs has pledged that its expansion plans will not be derailed by the new Labour government’s tax raising budget.

Greggs CEO Roisin Currie has told Reuters said that although she supported higher wages, changes to tax thresholds were an unwelcome surprise.

Currie said the measures would increase its annual costs by tens of millions of pounds, but also predicted that any customer price rises likely to only be “pennies”.

Currie says:

“Our shop growth plan, our supply chain investment, none of that changes. We are still absolutely going for growth.”

Currie also ruled out slashing the bonus distributed to employees to cover the costs of the budget, saying the bonus was “absolutely sacred”.

DIY chain Kingfisher has blamed the budget for hitting consumer confidence, and revealed that increases to employer national insurance contributions will cost it £31m.

Kingfisher has slightly lowered its earnings guidance this morning, it now expects adjusted pre-tax profits to be between £510m to £540m, down from £510m-£550m previously.

Thierry Garnier, chief executive officer of Kingfisher, says:

“Overall trading in the third quarter was resilient. Improved performance in August and September was offset by the impact of increased consumer uncertainty in the UK and France in October, related to government budgets in both countries.

Garnier adds that “recent political and macroeconomic developments” have layered incremental uncertainty onto the near-term outlook in its markets.

Rachel Reeves is expected to tell business leaders that they have offered “no alternatives” to her plans, in a defiant defence of her tax-raising budget today.

Reeves will tell the CBI’s annual conference in Westminster that no one has offered a better solution to the challenging situation left behind by the previous, Conservative government.

“I have heard lots of responses to the government’s first budget but I have heard no alternatives,” she is expected to say.

“We have asked businesses and the wealthiest to contribute more. I know those choices will have an impact. But I stand by those choices as the right choices for our country: investment to fix the NHS and rebuild Britain, while ensuring working people don’t face higher taxes in their payslips.”

Here’s the full story, by our economics editor Heather Stewart.

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

UK businesses are warning today that the tax rises in last month’s budget have put a ‘heavy burden’ on them, putting firms off hiring.

Business leaders are gathering at the Queen Elizabeth II Centre in central London for the Confederation of British Industry (CBI)‘s annual conference. They’ll hear from chancellor Rachel Reeves, and leader of the opposition Kemi Badenoch, after a breakfast with Bank of England (BoE) governor Andrew Bailey.

And the message from the CBI is that Reeves’s first budget will hurt profits, leading to lower investment and growth.

A survey conducted by the CBI after the budget found that nearly two-thirds of firms thought the budget will damage UK investment with half of firms looking to reduce headcount as a result.

CBI CEO Rain Newton-Smith will tell firms today that “tax rises like this must never again simply be done to business.”

She’s expected to say:

“What really defines growth – is the decisions made in boardrooms up and down the country.

It’s CFOs and CEOs asking: can we afford to invest? Can we afford to expand? Can we afford to take a chance on new people?

Well after the Budget, the answer we’re hearing from so many firms is still – not yet.

The rise in National Insurance and the stark lowering of the threshold, caught us all off guard.

Set alongside the expansion and rise of the National Living Wage – which everyone wants to accommodate – and the potential cost of the Employment Rights Bill changes… they put a heavy burden on business.”

She will then warn:

When you hit profits, you hit competitiveness, you hit investment. You hit growth.

Data last Friday showed that the UK private sector is stagnating this month, following the budget at the end of October.

The CBI, which was hit by claims of sexual misconduct and a ‘toxic culture’ last year, is now hoping to have a greater influence over government policy again. Newton-Smith is expected to commend the government for “drawing the curtain on a near decade of instability” but urge them to shift from “consultation to co-design”.

Reeves's budget, at the end of October, included £40bn of tax rises to boost public spending, including £25bn from increasing employer national insurance contributions.

The conference will be wrapped up by CBI president Rupert Soames. Back in February, he told us that the Guardian’s revelations about sexual misconduct at the lobbying group were “an appalling shock” that tipped it into a “near-death experience”.

Soames said the scandal had triggered an existential crisis; today’s conference will be a test of how well his rescue operation is going.

Among the speakers at today’s conference is the US Embassy’s Deputy Chief of Mission, Matthew Palmer, who will discuss the US political situation.

Also coming up

The Bank of England are holding a conference today too, with economists and other ‘watchers’ of the UK central bank – we’ll be watching for any hints on how quickly it will keep cutting interest rates.

Financial markets will be digesting Donald Trump’s nomination of Scott Bessent, a billionaire hedge fund manager, to be the next US Treasury secretary. Bessent is seen as a Wall Street-friendly pick.

The agenda

• 9am GMT: Bank of England deputy governor Clare Lombardelli speaks at BoE Watchers’ conference

• 10.05am GMT: Opening keynote address at CBI conference from Rain Newton Smith

• Noon GMT:

• 1.30pm GMT: Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch speaks at CBI’s annual conference

• 4.10pm GMT: CBI holds fireside chat with ‘senior cabinet minister’ (probably Reeves)