Donald Trump will not be a knockout “meteor” to Ireland’s economy despite its heavy reliance on US multinationals, the head of the country’s business trade organisation has said.
While the US president told world leaders gathered at Davos last week that “Europe treats us very, very unfairly” there is a heightened sense of nervousness in Ireland that this could translate to an attempt to repatriate jobs and taxes from the 950 US companies there.
The fears have been added to by the well-publicised views of the president’s nominee as commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, who said last year it was “a nonsense that Ireland of all places runs a trade surplus” at the expense of the US.
However, Danny McCoy, the chief executive of the Irish Business and Employers Confederation, said the near panic in some circles was unwarranted. “People are saying that what Trump is proposing means we are going to lose our business model. I just don’t believe that at all. I do not share the idea that one thing is going to knock out the economy like a meteor,” McCoy added.
One of the sectors viewed as particularly vulnerable to Trump is the pharmaceutical industry, with big players such as Pfizer manufacturing drugs in Ireland and exporting them back to the US while booking profits in Ireland.
McCoy argued such fears were premature, given Trump’s inconsistent comments, which meant it was unclear exactly what his position on tax and repatriating US jobs would be.
“Trump is saying lots of things at once. He is blunderbuss at the moment, not targeting on one thing. Of course we need to listen to what he is saying, but it is not really clear what Trump is saying. It flip flops every day,” he said. “My point is instead of panicking we have to wait and see.”
McCoy added: “At one level nothing has changed. Mood has changed. Soundings have changed. But technically, nothing has changed.”
He suggested fears of a sudden relocation might be overblown, saying “the investments multinationals make tend to be quite significant and don’t tend to lift and shift that easily.
“The US also has an incredibly tight labour market and Trump is simultaneously talking about deporting people and not letting people in. So where would they do their manufacturing if they can’t get employees?”
